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Commission européenne
Direction générale des affaires économiques et
financières
Nombre prévu de numéros: 6 (si des
"Specials reports" sont publiés, ils seront envoyés
aux abonnés.)
21 x 29,7 cm
ISSN 0379-0991
Prix
d'abonnement 2009 (frais de port inclus, hors TVA): 160 ¤
disponible uniquement en
Anglais
[s'abonner]
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European Economy contains important
reports and communications from the Commission to the
Council and to the European Parliament on the
economic situation and developments. It encompasses:
- the implementation report of the broad economic
policy guidelines,
- economic forecasts (spring and autumn) public
finances in EMU,
- the broad economic policy guidelines,
- the EU economy review,
- convergence report,
- the statistical annex.
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▲ Editorial du numéro "European Economic
Forecast - autumn 2009" -
EUROPEAN ECONOMY 10|2009
The EU economy is, finally, at the turning point. Signs of improvement in the economic situation and
outlook have become increasingly apparent this autumn. For the first time in two years, the forecast has
been revised up. GDP growth is expected to turn positive again in the second half of the year, thereby
putting an end to the deepest, longest and most broad-based recession in EU's history. This would not
have been possible without the determined and concerted policy action taken EU wide. In so doing, both a
systemic meltdown and an outright depression were avoided. The extraordinary public support put in
place under the umbrella of the European Economic Recovery Plan has been instrumental in stabilising
the economy. It is now key to fully implement the announced measures to maintain the positive growth
momentum. Moreover, it is time to move beyond short-term demand management to address the supplyside
forces at play.
Indeed, while the recession may be over, the impact of the crisis is not. Although several financial stress
indicators are back at pre-crisis levels, the banking sector remains fragile. Possible further losses are
estimated to range from some ¤200 to ¤400 bn in 2009-2010 for this sector. There is also a need for
deleveraging among households and firms. Capital costs are set to remain higher (than in the pre-crisis
period) due to elevated risk premia. These factors are expected to put a brake on investment and
consumption growth going forward. Moreover, the full impact of the crisis on the labour market and
public finances is yet to come. However, there are also risks on the upside. The recovery could, for
example, prove more pronounced if the impact of measures to restore the soundness of the financial
sector and on confidence proves stronger than expected.
Following an initial, largely policy-driven boost, economic activity is expected to ease somewhat in the
course of next year and to regain ground only gradually as domestic and external demand strengthen. Two
areas stand out as particularly important in determining how the EU economy will evolve over the more
medium term. This forecast document therefore contains two analytical chapters discussing the impact of
the crisis on labour markets and public debt.
Starting with the labour markets, developments so far (although dire) are better than earlier expected. This
is partly explained by the use of short-term policy measures along with labour hoarding in some Member
States. Firms are, however, expected to increase job shedding and the unemployment rate is set to rise
further. Historical evidence suggests that an increase in unemployment following a financial crisis could
become persistent. On the other hand, the better-than-expected development could in part reflect the
favourable impact of past labour-market reforms, which made the labour markets more resilient.
Turning to public finances, the crisis is taking its toll on debt developments via its impact on fiscal
balances and lower growth. Although the projected sharp increase in government debt ratios is not
necessarily out of the ordinary for a financial crisis episode, the high initial level of debt, especially in
some Member States, makes it more difficult to sustain. Once the underlying recovery has gained
sufficient traction, i.e. in 2011, a period of fiscal consolidation will have to follow to put public debt back
on a sustainable footing.
Summing up, this outlook points to a gradual recovery. It will be key to tackle the labour-market and debt
challenges identified to ensure the transition to a solid sustainable recovery further out. Addressing these
challenges with determination will allow the EU economy to emerge stronger after the crisis.
[sommaire en format pdf]
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